Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.125415 2.253650 2.388816 2.542454 2.712931 2.897085 3.112127
2025-08-24 1.917931 2.091518 2.283299 2.512802 2.782571 3.092957 3.482131
2025-08-31 1.800416 2.001065 2.230043 2.514288 2.862940 3.284038 3.843247
2025-09-07 1.719214 1.939886 2.198357 2.529046 2.949580 3.479558 4.221225
2025-09-14 1.628277 1.858041 2.132478 2.491814 2.961901 3.574991 4.471337
2025-09-21 1.549686 1.784910 2.070495 2.451845 2.963090 3.650389 4.696127
2025-09-28 1.478405 1.716091 2.008649 2.405890 2.949827 3.700904 4.885762
2025-10-05 1.450939 1.699990 2.011659 2.443593 3.050831 3.918344 5.353320
2025-10-12 1.426920 1.686384 2.016149 2.482113 3.154076 4.146916 5.870798
2025-10-19 1.401881 1.669766 2.015049 2.511718 3.245210 4.364432 6.403329
2025-10-26 1.363692 1.633959 1.986077 2.499622 3.272360 4.482328 6.775846
2025-11-02 1.327962 1.599795 1.957461 2.485805 3.294869 4.593312 7.152228
2025-11-09 1.288723 1.560083 1.920307 2.458640 3.296382 4.672132 7.486519
2025-11-16 1.251690 1.522046 1.883890 2.430522 3.294179 4.744045 7.820750
2025-11-23 1.226845 1.499581 1.868106 2.431929 3.338912 4.902450 8.374678
2025-11-30 1.207618 1.484000 1.861160 2.445905 3.404658 5.105533 9.079629
2025-12-07 1.174485 1.448022 1.823579 2.410644 3.384771 5.144758 9.396190
2025-12-14 1.142411 1.412576 1.785509 2.372770 3.357758 5.167206 9.675780
2025-12-21 1.110322 1.376234 1.744961 2.329199 3.318088 5.160756 9.878225
2025-12-28 1.102830 1.374243 1.754359 2.364948 3.419734 5.449876 10.988435
2026-01-04 1.095871 1.372665 1.764109 2.401453 3.525176 5.760918 12.290414
2026-01-11 1.086885 1.367827 1.768673 2.429496 3.617010 6.055528 13.678771
2026-01-18 1.067933 1.348047 1.750005 2.418040 3.633627 6.183121 14.540020